id,title,description,date_created,date_modified,date_published,original_publication_date,publication_doi,provider,is_published,reviews_state,version,is_latest_version,preprint_doi,license,tags_list,tags_data,contributors_list,contributors_data,first_author,subjects_list,subjects_data,download_url,has_coi,conflict_of_interest_statement,has_data_links,has_prereg_links,prereg_links,prereg_link_info,last_updated
cv4w5_v1,Interviewing expert-elites in education: when the few matter more than the many,"In this paper, we discuss the ontology and epistemology of interviews in research. We illustrate our reflection using the case of interviewing elite-experts in education. We provide insights into how sampling, use of methodology, and analysis for such interviews can be managed to ensure both good access to information only these experts can provide and valid construction of knowledge. In discussing this case, we reflect on qualitative research and take a critical stance toward practices that undermine the field of qualitative research. Specifically, we reflect on the process of analyzing interviews and — what we refer to as “the quantification of qualitative research” — how it has become tainted and poorly executed due to a fixation on counting codes to construct patterns under a quantitative epistemic logic. This essay is written in the form of a dialectic between reflections on interviewing elite experts and the qualitative logic this requires.",2025-05-11T12:49:58.118951,2025-05-11T20:24:00.593051,2025-05-11T20:23:37.092316,,,socarxiv,1,accepted,1,1,https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/cv4w5_v1,CC-By Attribution 4.0 International,epistemology; expert-elites; interviews; ontology; qualitative research,"[""epistemology"", ""expert-elites"", ""interviews"", ""ontology"", ""qualitative research""]",Jo Bjørkli Helgetun; Thibault Coppe,"[{""id"": ""3ds2j"", ""name"": ""Jo Bj\u00f8rkli Helgetun"", ""index"": 0, ""orcid"": ""0000-0003-0512-286X"", ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""vn48y"", ""name"": ""Thibault Coppe"", ""index"": 1, ""orcid"": ""0000-0001-5886-5435"", ""bibliographic"": true}]",Jo Bjørkli Helgetun,Education,"[{""id"": ""5a8c80f6c698300375c76d4e"", ""text"": ""Education""}]",https://osf.io/download/68209ddd7627f7b66cce9ec1,0,,not_applicable,not_applicable,[],,2025-05-12T00:11:29.217274
fcymj_v1,Where Do Theories Come From?,"This book builds a theory of theory building and testing that is based on insights in Lipton’s 2004 book Inference to the Best Explanation (IBE).  The new theory, called IBET (short for Inference-to-the-Best-Explanation Theory of theory building and testing), is presented and compared to three rival theories from the social sciences in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 discusses various philosophical issues and underpinnings of IBET, including sections on induction, abduction, causality, and differences between the Philosophy of Science and Social Science literatures on theory building. Chapter 3 presents details and test results from a qualitative empirical test of IBET that examined 41 cases of theory building and testing by recent Nobel prize-winners, 15 from Economics and 26 from Physics.  The conclusions were that (a) there was very strong support for IBET, and (b) this support probably generalizes to all theory building in both Economics and Physics, and (with less confidence) to all scientific theory building.  Then, since Salmon’s criticism of Lipton’s claims about the merits of IBE poses a major threat to IBET, Chapter 4 presents a possible behavioural explanation and reconciliation of Salmon’s and Lipton’s conflicting views on IBE.  Finally, Chapter 5 illustrates many of the issues discussed in the book by presenting a detailed example of one of the author’s attempts at theory building.",2025-05-11T02:40:05.525577,2025-05-11T20:23:21.757387,2025-05-11T20:23:07.051790,,,socarxiv,1,accepted,1,1,https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/fcymj_v1,CC-By Attribution 4.0 International,,[],peter beaufort Seddon,"[{""id"": ""kmyz9"", ""name"": ""peter beaufort Seddon"", ""index"": 0, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": true}]",peter beaufort Seddon,Arts and Humanities; Philosophy; Philosophy of Science,"[{""id"": ""5a8c80f2c698300375c76c7d"", ""text"": ""Arts and Humanities""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f5c698300375c76cf4"", ""text"": ""Philosophy""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f5c698300375c76cfc"", ""text"": ""Philosophy of Science""}]",https://osf.io/download/68200e2390bddb94e2ce9de4,0,,available,no,[],,2025-05-12T00:11:29.216946
ys8zw_v2,Tendencies toward triadic closure: Field-experimental evidence,"Empirical social networks are characterized by a high degree of triadic closure (i.e.,
transitivity, clustering), whereby network neighbors of the same individual are also likely to
be directly connected. It is unknown to what degree this results from dispositions to form
such ties (i.e., to close open triangles) per se or from other processes, such as homophily and
more opportunities for exposure. These are difficult to disentangle in many settings, but in
social media not only can they be decomposed, but platforms frequently make decisions that
depend on these distinct processes. Here, using a field experiment on social media, we
randomize the existing network structure that a user faces when followed by a target account
that we control, and we examine whether they reciprocate this tie formation. Being randomly
assigned to have an existing tie to an account that follows the target user increases tie
formation by 35%. Through the use of multiple control conditions in which the relevant tie is
absent (never existent or removed), we attribute this effect specifically to a minimal cue that
indicates the presence of a potential mutual follower. Theory suggests that triadic closure
should be especially likely in open triads of strong ties, and we find larger effects when the
subject has interacted more with the existing follower. These results indicate a substantial
role for tendencies toward triadic closure, but one that is substantially smaller than what
might be inferred from prior observational studies. Platforms and others may rely on these
tendencies in encouraging tie formation, with broader implications for network structure and
information diffusion in online networks.",2025-05-10T17:09:35.893572,2025-05-10T17:26:23.090289,2025-05-10T17:26:11.247502,,,socarxiv,1,accepted,2,1,https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/ys8zw_v2,No license,Twitter; field experiment; homophily; reciprocity; social networks; transitivity,"[""Twitter"", ""field experiment"", ""homophily"", ""reciprocity"", ""social networks"", ""transitivity""]",Mohsen Mosleh; Dean Eckles; David Rand,"[{""id"": ""6nvmy"", ""name"": ""Mohsen Mosleh"", ""index"": 0, ""orcid"": ""0000-0001-7313-5035"", ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""89b78"", ""name"": ""Dean Eckles"", ""index"": 1, ""orcid"": ""0000-0001-8439-442X"", ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""s4y83"", ""name"": ""David Rand"", ""index"": 2, ""orcid"": ""0000-0001-8975-2783"", ""bibliographic"": true}]",Mohsen Mosleh,"Social and Behavioral Sciences; Psychology; Social Psychology; Economics; Social Statistics; Communication; Communication Technology and New Media; Sociology; Economic Sociology; Organizations, Occupations, and Work; Social Psychology and Interaction","[{""id"": ""5a8c80f7c698300375c76d84"", ""text"": ""Social and Behavioral Sciences""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f7c698300375c76d98"", ""text"": ""Psychology""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f7c698300375c76da2"", ""text"": ""Social Psychology""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76dbe"", ""text"": ""Economics""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f9c698300375c76e0c"", ""text"": ""Social Statistics""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f9c698300375c76e0d"", ""text"": ""Communication""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f9c698300375c76e0f"", ""text"": ""Communication Technology and New Media""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80fac698300375c76e20"", ""text"": ""Sociology""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80fac698300375c76e2d"", ""text"": ""Economic Sociology""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80fac698300375c76e38"", ""text"": ""Organizations, Occupations, and Work""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80fac698300375c76e4b"", ""text"": ""Social Psychology and Interaction""}]",https://osf.io/download/681f885dc2a521280e7a1aa6,1,D.E. was previously a consultant to Twitter while writing this paper. D.E. and D.R. have received funding from Meta for other research. Meta has sponsored a conference that D.E. organizes.,no,available,"[""https://aspredicted.org/as4xt.pdf""]",,2025-05-11T00:11:37.455732
w4d8y_v1,Framing Information Transfer Management (ITM):   A Four-Zone Framework for Governing Knowledge in the Age of AI,"We propose a four-zone framework for understanding Information Transfer Management (ITM) in the age of advanced artificial intelligence. Drawing on the evolution of platforms like Freenet, Wikipedia, and ChatGPT, and contrasting distinct regulatory logics, the framework identifies four attractor forces—Sovereignty, Market, Morality, and Method—that shape geopolitical ITM zones. This approach is designed to support idiomatic diplomacy: forms of communication that remain tolerable even between fundamentally incompatible regimes. Such communicative capacity is essential for any jurisdiction that seeks to regulate AI services.
	We demonstrate the framework’s analytic utility by profiling eight thinkers—Confucius, Mao Zedong, Smith, Friedman, Montesquieu, Bourdieu, Popper, and Goodfellow—across the four zones. This leads us to propose an epistemic shift within the ""Method"" zone itself, one that relates scientific authority to the forces of power, capital, and conviction. We conclude by arguing that our framework is both empirically tractable and theoretically expandable, and offer several research questions concerning generative social phenomena that we hope others will develop further.",2025-05-10T10:36:35.537911,2025-05-10T15:09:22.278763,2025-05-10T15:09:11.086149,,,socarxiv,1,accepted,1,1,https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/w4d8y_v1,CC-By Attribution 4.0 International,AI governance; This preprint is under review at Nature Human Behaviour (submitted May 2025); epistemic pluralism; information transfer governance,"[""AI governance"", ""This preprint is under review at Nature Human Behaviour (submitted May 2025)"", ""epistemic pluralism"", ""information transfer governance""]",aernout schmidt; Zhang Kunbei,"[{""id"": ""7fc4t"", ""name"": ""aernout schmidt"", ""index"": 0, ""orcid"": ""0000-0003-2594-5767"", ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""389qd"", ""name"": ""Zhang Kunbei"", ""index"": 1, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": true}]",aernout schmidt,"Law; Science and Technology Law; Social and Behavioral Sciences; Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration; Economic Policy; Social Policy; Infrastructure; Public Policy; Science and Technology Policy; Communication; International and Intercultural Communication","[{""id"": ""5a8c80f0c698300375c76c07"", ""text"": ""Law""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f0c698300375c76c15"", ""text"": ""Science and Technology Law""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f7c698300375c76d84"", ""text"": ""Social and Behavioral Sciences""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76ddb"", ""text"": ""Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76ddf"", ""text"": ""Economic Policy""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f9c698300375c76de0"", ""text"": ""Social Policy""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f9c698300375c76de7"", ""text"": ""Infrastructure""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f9c698300375c76deb"", ""text"": ""Public Policy""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f9c698300375c76ded"", ""text"": ""Science and Technology Policy""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f9c698300375c76e0d"", ""text"": ""Communication""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f9c698300375c76e17"", ""text"": ""International and Intercultural Communication""}]",https://osf.io/download/681f2c60089303dfefeadffa,0,,not_applicable,not_applicable,[],,2025-05-11T00:11:37.463125
wfxsm_v2,Exploring dynamics of online cultural evolution through agent-based simulations and online data,"More and more cultural content is being produced and transmitted online while increasing competition for limited attention likely intensifies existing selective pressures on content. Therefore, it becomes important to understand the driving forces of cultural evolution in this environment. In this paper, we present an agent-based model to capture cultural transmission dynamics online, considering characteristics of digital online environments (low-cost production, high-fidelity transmission, high individual reach) that set them apart from offline scenarios. As a case study, we report preliminary findings of a rise in clickbait style in titles across online platforms, and use our model to explain which mechanisms could give rise to this pattern. Generally, the model serves to formulate predictions against which to compare observational data and we show how online trends can be interpreted in terms of cultural evolution. This work outlines an interdisciplinary research agenda for studying and understanding cultural evolution online, with possible implications for regulating online content and designing digital environments.",2025-05-10T09:59:21.575952,2025-05-10T15:00:40.681339,2025-05-10T15:00:30.893011,,,socarxiv,1,accepted,2,1,https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/wfxsm_v2,CC-By Attribution 4.0 International,agent-based modeling; agent-based simulations; clickbait; cultural evolution; social transmission,"[""agent-based modeling"", ""agent-based simulations"", ""clickbait"", ""cultural evolution"", ""social transmission""]",Pietro Leonardo Nickl; Mehdi Moussaid,"[{""id"": ""s5am8"", ""name"": ""Pietro Leonardo Nickl"", ""index"": 0, ""orcid"": ""0009-0006-3064-1791"", ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""cww4p"", ""name"": ""Mehdi Moussaid"", ""index"": 1, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": true}]",Pietro Leonardo Nickl,Social and Behavioral Sciences,"[{""id"": ""5a8c80f7c698300375c76d84"", ""text"": ""Social and Behavioral Sciences""}]",https://osf.io/download/681f2385089303dfefeadf22,0,,no,no,[],,2025-05-11T00:11:37.458665
f23k4_v1,Gaming the Metrics? Bibliometric Anomalies and the Integrity Crisis in Global University Rankings,"Global university rankings have transformed how certain institutions define success, often elevating metrics over meaning. This study examines universities with rapid research growth that suggest metric-driven behaviors. Among the 1,000 most publishing institutions, 98 showed extreme output increases between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024. Of these, 18 were selected for exhibiting sharp declines in first and corresponding authorship. Compared to national, regional, and international norms, these universities (in India, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) display patterns consistent with strategic metric optimization. Key findings include publication growth of up to 965%, concentrated in STEM fields; surges in hyper-prolific authors and highly cited articles; and dense internal co-authorship and citation clusters. The group also exhibited elevated shares of publications in delisted journals and high retraction rates. These patterns illustrate vulnerabilities in global ranking systems, as metrics lose meaning when treated as targets (Goodhart’s Law) and institutions emulate high-performing peers under competitive pressure (institutional isomorphism). Without reform, rankings may continue incentivizing behaviors that distort scholarly contribution and compromise research integrity.",2025-05-10T06:03:15.482243,2025-05-10T14:59:21.783780,2025-05-10T14:59:03.919362,,,socarxiv,1,accepted,1,1,https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/f23k4_v1,CC-By Attribution 4.0 International,,[],Lokman I. Meho,"[{""id"": ""wv5kt"", ""name"": ""Lokman I. Meho"", ""index"": 0, ""orcid"": ""0000-0003-0623-4652"", ""bibliographic"": true}]",Lokman I. Meho,"Education; Educational Assessment, Evaluation, and Research; Social and Behavioral Sciences; Library and Information Science; Scholarly Publishing; Scholarly Communication; Science and Technology Studies","[{""id"": ""5a8c80f6c698300375c76d4e"", ""text"": ""Education""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f6c698300375c76d59"", ""text"": ""Educational Assessment, Evaluation, and Research""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f7c698300375c76d84"", ""text"": ""Social and Behavioral Sciences""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76dd4"", ""text"": ""Library and Information Science""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76dd5"", ""text"": ""Scholarly Publishing""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76dd9"", ""text"": ""Scholarly Communication""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f9c698300375c76df4"", ""text"": ""Science and Technology Studies""}]",https://osf.io/download/681eec3b3d1f43be75ce9e25,1,The author declares that he is affiliated with a university that is a peer institution to one of the universities included in the study group.,no,no,[],,2025-05-11T00:11:37.458071
xb2n6_v2,Leveraging Large Language Models in Message Stimuli Generation and Validation for Experimental Research,"Despite the wide application of message stimuli in communication experiments, creating effective stimuli is often challenging and costly. However, the advent of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) suggests great potential to facilitate this process. To advance AI-assisted communication research, we examined the performance of ChatGPT (powered by GPT-4) in generating message stimuli for experimental research. Through four pre-registered experiments, we compared GPT-generated stimuli with human-generated stimuli in (1) manipulating target variables (discrete emotions and moral intuitions) and (2) controlling unintended variables. We found GPT-generated message stimuli performed equivalently to or even surpassed human-generated stimuli in manipulating target variables, while the performance in controlling unintended variables was mixed. Our study suggests that LLMs can generate effective message stimuli for communication experimental research. This research serves as a foundational resource for integrating LLMs in stimuli generation across various communication contexts, with its effectiveness, opportunities and challenges discussed.",2025-05-10T01:19:32.798181,2025-05-10T06:24:00.861493,2025-05-10T06:23:42.080104,2025-05-07T04:00:00,,socarxiv,1,accepted,2,1,https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/xb2n6_v2,CC-By Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International,artificial intelligence; communication experiment; emotion; large language model; message stimuli; moral intuition,"[""artificial intelligence"", ""communication experiment"", ""emotion"", ""large language model"", ""message stimuli"", ""moral intuition""]",Qijia Ye; Zening Duan; Shengchun Huang,"[{""id"": ""95ghx"", ""name"": ""Qijia Ye"", ""index"": 0, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""dz9uk"", ""name"": ""Zening Duan"", ""index"": 1, ""orcid"": ""0000-0001-7369-657X"", ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""6u8fa"", ""name"": ""Shengchun Huang"", ""index"": 2, ""orcid"": """", ""bibliographic"": true}]",Qijia Ye,Social and Behavioral Sciences; Communication; Communication Technology and New Media; Health Communication; Social Influence and Political Communication,"[{""id"": ""5a8c80f7c698300375c76d84"", ""text"": ""Social and Behavioral Sciences""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f9c698300375c76e0d"", ""text"": ""Communication""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f9c698300375c76e0f"", ""text"": ""Communication Technology and New Media""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f9c698300375c76e16"", ""text"": ""Health Communication""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f9c698300375c76e1d"", ""text"": ""Social Influence and Political Communication""}]",https://osf.io/download/681eaa5c048eb820f09c41d7,0,,no,available,"[""https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/65UCN""]",,2025-05-11T00:11:37.455469
z6qkn_v1,"Where Have All the Good Jobs Gone? Changes in the Geography of Work in the U.S., 1980-2021","We examine changes in the spatial distribution of good jobs across U.S. commuting zones over 1980-2000 and 2000-2021. We define good jobs as those in industries in which full-time workers attain high wages, accounting for individual and regional characteristics. The share of good jobs in manufacturing has plummeted; for college graduates, good jobs have shifted to (mostly tradable) business, professional, and IT services, while for those without a BA they have shifted to (nontradable) construction. There is strong persistence in where good jobs are located. Over the last four decades, places with larger concentrations of good job industries have tended to hold onto them, consistent with a model of proportional growth. Turning to regional specialization in good job industries, we find evidence of mean reversion. Commuting zones with larger initial concentrations of good jobs have thus seen even faster growth in lower-wage (and mostly nontradable) services. Changing regional employment patterns are most pronounced among racial minorities and the foreign-born, who are relatively concentrated in fast growing cities of the South and West. Therefore, good job regions today look vastly different than in 1980: they are more centered around human-capital-intensive tradable services, are surrounded by larger concentrations of low-wage, non-tradable industries, and are more demographically diverse. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)",2025-05-09T18:18:27.452076,2025-05-09T18:27:13.694583,2025-05-09T18:26:27.367715,,,socarxiv,1,accepted,1,1,https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/z6qkn_v1,No license,,[],Gordon H. Hanson; Enrico Moretti,"[{""id"": ""zvjd4"", ""name"": ""Gordon H. Hanson"", ""index"": 0, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""456fb"", ""name"": ""Enrico Moretti"", ""index"": 1, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""my3ne"", ""name"": ""Carolyn Fisher"", ""index"": 2, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": false}]",Gordon H. Hanson,Social and Behavioral Sciences; Economics; Labor Economics; Regional Economics; Macroeconomics,"[{""id"": ""5a8c80f7c698300375c76d84"", ""text"": ""Social and Behavioral Sciences""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76dbe"", ""text"": ""Economics""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76dc3"", ""text"": ""Labor Economics""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76dc6"", ""text"": ""Regional Economics""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76dcb"", ""text"": ""Macroeconomics""}]",https://osf.io/download/681e48064ed714353a70023a,0,,not_applicable,not_applicable,[],,2025-05-10T00:11:34.191243
2bg7a_v1,The U.S. Place-Based Policy Supply Chain,"Place-based policy in the United States comprises a wide range of government programs that are spread across federal, state, and local agencies and that rely on public, private, and nonprofit organizations for policy design and implementation. We document how loosely connected vertical policy supply chains distribute resources from federal and state governments to recipients at the local level. The apparatus is the product of 150 years of policy innovation, both from the top down, with the federal government periodically launching major initiatives whose place-based impacts tend to be long-lived (even if the specific policies are not), and from the bottom up, with state and local actors engineering their own policy solutions, many of which have endured and now constitute modern policy practice. That practice includes not just tax incentives for business investment, the subject of most economic research on place-based policy, but support for community redevelopment, workforce development, small business promotion, technological innovation, and regional planning and strategy. Intermediary organizations that connect government agencies to local recipients are central to resource delivery. Because they tend to be created, funded, and (or) run by non-state actors, there appears to be wide geographic variation in organizational capacity for place-based policy. Understanding the causes and consequences of that variation is needed for a full accounting of how place-based policy works in the U.S. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)",2025-05-09T17:47:13.592700,2025-05-09T17:54:42.370809,2025-05-09T17:54:30.698915,,,socarxiv,1,accepted,1,1,https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/2bg7a_v1,No license,,[],Gordon H. Hanson; Dani Rodrik; Rohan Sandhu,"[{""id"": ""zvjd4"", ""name"": ""Gordon H. Hanson"", ""index"": 0, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""c58bm"", ""name"": ""Dani Rodrik"", ""index"": 1, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""6r2sg"", ""name"": ""Rohan Sandhu"", ""index"": 2, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""my3ne"", ""name"": ""Carolyn Fisher"", ""index"": 3, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": false}]",Gordon H. Hanson,"Social and Behavioral Sciences; Political Science; Economics; Macroeconomics; Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration; Economic Policy; Public Policy","[{""id"": ""5a8c80f7c698300375c76d84"", ""text"": ""Social and Behavioral Sciences""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76daf"", ""text"": ""Political Science""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76dbe"", ""text"": ""Economics""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76dcb"", ""text"": ""Macroeconomics""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76ddb"", ""text"": ""Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76ddf"", ""text"": ""Economic Policy""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f9c698300375c76deb"", ""text"": ""Public Policy""}]",https://osf.io/download/681e3fb3d9a66c970985ecbd,0,,not_applicable,not_applicable,[],,2025-05-10T00:11:34.191819
7rfae_v1,Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization,"This chapter analyzes the distinct adjustment paths of U.S. labor markets (places) and U.S. workers (people) to increased Chinese import competition during the 2000s. Using comprehensive register data for 2000–2019, we document that employment levels more than fully rebound in trade-exposed places after 2010, while employment-to-population ratios remain depressed and manufacturing employment further atrophies. The adjustment of places to trade shocks is generational: affected areas recover primarily by adding workers to non-manufacturing who were below working age when the shock occurred. Entrants are disproportionately native-born Hispanics, foreign-born immigrants, women, and the college-educated, who find employment in relatively low-wage service sectors such as medical services, education, retail, and hospitality. Using the panel structure of the employer-employee data, we decompose changes in the employment composition of places into trade-induced shifts in the gross flows of people across sectors, locations, and non-employment status. Contrary to standard models, trade shocks reduce geographic mobility, with both in- and out-migration remaining depressed through 2019. The employment recovery stems almost entirely from young adults and foreign-born immigrants taking their first U.S. jobs in affected areas, with minimal contributions from cross-sector transitions of former manufacturing workers. Although worker inflows into non-manufacturing more than fully offset manufacturing employment losses in trade-exposed locations after 2010, incumbent workers neither fully recover earnings losses nor predominantly exit the labor market, but rather age in place as communities undergo rapid demographic and industrial transitions. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)",2025-05-09T16:56:26.477251,2025-05-09T17:06:20.579888,2025-05-09T17:05:57.102404,,,socarxiv,1,accepted,1,1,https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/7rfae_v1,No license,China trade shock; Local labor markets; Manufacturing decline; Sectoral reallocation; Worker mobility,"[""China trade shock"", ""Local labor markets"", ""Manufacturing decline"", ""Sectoral reallocation"", ""Worker mobility""]",David Autor; David Dorn; Gordon H. Hanson; Maggie R. Jones; Bradley Setzler,"[{""id"": ""2wxmt"", ""name"": ""David Autor"", ""index"": 0, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""54xjb"", ""name"": ""David Dorn"", ""index"": 1, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""zvjd4"", ""name"": ""Gordon H. Hanson"", ""index"": 2, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""3mvby"", ""name"": ""Maggie R. Jones"", ""index"": 3, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""se9bm"", ""name"": ""Bradley Setzler"", ""index"": 4, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": true}, {""id"": ""my3ne"", ""name"": ""Carolyn Fisher"", ""index"": 5, ""orcid"": null, ""bibliographic"": false}]",David Autor,Social and Behavioral Sciences; Economics; Labor Economics; Macroeconomics; International Economics,"[{""id"": ""5a8c80f7c698300375c76d84"", ""text"": ""Social and Behavioral Sciences""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76dbe"", ""text"": ""Economics""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76dc3"", ""text"": ""Labor Economics""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76dcb"", ""text"": ""Macroeconomics""}, {""id"": ""5a8c80f8c698300375c76dcc"", ""text"": ""International Economics""}]",https://osf.io/download/681e33c29bfd2185abda545d,0,,not_applicable,not_applicable,[],,2025-05-10T00:11:34.210256