preprints_ui: 7rfae_v1

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id	title	description	date_created	date_modified	date_published	original_publication_date	publication_doi	provider	is_published	reviews_state	version	is_latest_version	preprint_doi	license	tags_list	tags_data	contributors_list	contributors_data	first_author	subjects_list	subjects_data	download_url	has_coi	conflict_of_interest_statement	has_data_links	has_prereg_links	prereg_links	prereg_link_info	last_updated
7rfae_v1	Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization	This chapter analyzes the distinct adjustment paths of U.S. labor markets (places) and U.S. workers (people) to increased Chinese import competition during the 2000s. Using comprehensive register data for 2000–2019, we document that employment levels more than fully rebound in trade-exposed places after 2010, while employment-to-population ratios remain depressed and manufacturing employment further atrophies. The adjustment of places to trade shocks is generational: affected areas recover primarily by adding workers to non-manufacturing who were below working age when the shock occurred. Entrants are disproportionately native-born Hispanics, foreign-born immigrants, women, and the college-educated, who find employment in relatively low-wage service sectors such as medical services, education, retail, and hospitality. Using the panel structure of the employer-employee data, we decompose changes in the employment composition of places into trade-induced shifts in the gross flows of people across sectors, locations, and non-employment status. Contrary to standard models, trade shocks reduce geographic mobility, with both in- and out-migration remaining depressed through 2019. The employment recovery stems almost entirely from young adults and foreign-born immigrants taking their first U.S. jobs in affected areas, with minimal contributions from cross-sector transitions of former manufacturing workers. Although worker inflows into non-manufacturing more than fully offset manufacturing employment losses in trade-exposed locations after 2010, incumbent workers neither fully recover earnings losses nor predominantly exit the labor market, but rather age in place as communities undergo rapid demographic and industrial transitions. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)	2025-05-09T16:56:26.477251	2025-05-09T17:06:20.579888	2025-05-09T17:05:57.102404			socarxiv	1	accepted	1	1	https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/7rfae_v1	No license	China trade shock; Local labor markets; Manufacturing decline; Sectoral reallocation; Worker mobility	["China trade shock", "Local labor markets", "Manufacturing decline", "Sectoral reallocation", "Worker mobility"]	David Autor; David Dorn; Gordon H. Hanson; Maggie R. Jones; Bradley Setzler	[{"id": "2wxmt", "name": "David Autor", "index": 0, "orcid": null, "bibliographic": true}, {"id": "54xjb", "name": "David Dorn", "index": 1, "orcid": null, "bibliographic": true}, {"id": "zvjd4", "name": "Gordon H. Hanson", "index": 2, "orcid": null, "bibliographic": true}, {"id": "3mvby", "name": "Maggie R. Jones", "index": 3, "orcid": null, "bibliographic": true}, {"id": "se9bm", "name": "Bradley Setzler", "index": 4, "orcid": null, "bibliographic": true}, {"id": "my3ne", "name": "Carolyn Fisher", "index": 5, "orcid": null, "bibliographic": false}]	David Autor	Social and Behavioral Sciences; Economics; Labor Economics; Macroeconomics; International Economics	[{"id": "5a8c80f7c698300375c76d84", "text": "Social and Behavioral Sciences"}, {"id": "5a8c80f8c698300375c76dbe", "text": "Economics"}, {"id": "5a8c80f8c698300375c76dc3", "text": "Labor Economics"}, {"id": "5a8c80f8c698300375c76dcb", "text": "Macroeconomics"}, {"id": "5a8c80f8c698300375c76dcc", "text": "International Economics"}]	https://osf.io/download/681e33c29bfd2185abda545d	0		not_applicable	not_applicable	[]		2025-05-10T00:11:34.210256