preprints_ui: ajzp8_v1
Data license: ODbL (database) & original licenses (content) · Data source: Open Science Framework
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| ajzp8_v1 | Associations between school absence and negative post-education destinations observed in a population database | School absences are known to be negatively associated with educational attainment, but few studies have documented subsequent consequences. The increased school absence seen since the COVID-19 pandemic mean that a better understanding of the longer-term consequences of absence is urgently needed. We used a population level database (Connected Bradford) to assess the associations between school absences at 5-16 years of age with negative post-education outcomes (operationalised as ‘Not in Employment, Education, or Training (NEET)’ status) at age 16-18 years. We found that absence was associated with increased rates of becoming NEET, especially for unauthorised absences. The timing of absence was important, with the relationship strength increasing as a function of age (between ages 11-16 years). The rate of absence was also important, with those absent for longer periods more likely to become NEET. Further, NEET risk increased monotonically with absence rate, providing no empirical support for ‘persistent absence’ (>10% absence rate) as a distinct category. Finally, we identified five ‘school absence trajectory’ clusters and found that the worst outcomes were associated with young people in clusters where absence rates increased throughout secondary school. These NEET patterns closely mirror those seen for educational attainment and thus underscore the strong connections between attainment and post-education destinations. The results highlight that School absences are well-placed to act as an early indicator of negative outcome risk given that early absences are often indicative of an undesirable future trajectory. | 2025-05-09T08:33:22.408210 | 2025-05-09T19:46:48.054141 | 2025-05-09T19:46:22.504321 | edarxiv | 1 | accepted | 1 | 1 | https://doi.org/10.35542/osf.io/ajzp8_v1 | CC-By Attribution 4.0 International | NEET; absenteeism; education; school absence | ["NEET", "absenteeism", "education", "school absence"] | Matthew Warburton; Emily Connell; Megan L Wood; Sam Denny; Mark Mon-Williams; Daniel Birks | [{"id": "rjcbg", "name": "Matthew Warburton", "index": 0, "orcid": "0000-0001-5309-4424", "bibliographic": true}, {"id": "gzqey", "name": "Emily Connell", "index": 1, "orcid": null, "bibliographic": true}, {"id": "zkx6e", "name": "Megan L Wood", "index": 2, "orcid": null, "bibliographic": true}, {"id": "uycpv", "name": "Sam Denny", "index": 3, "orcid": null, "bibliographic": true}, {"id": "3qe2d", "name": "Mark Mon-Williams", "index": 4, "orcid": null, "bibliographic": true}, {"id": "wgks7", "name": "Daniel Birks", "index": 5, "orcid": "0000-0003-3055-7398", "bibliographic": true}] | Matthew Warburton | Education | [{"id": "5d0b8ccabe1a2300167c87f3", "text": "Education"}] | https://osf.io/download/681dbddd8651ca9dbf0a7c9b | 0 | no | no | [] | 2025-05-10T00:11:34.193879 |